How I think about catastrophic biological risk (part I): risk breakdown by type of response
This series of posts outlines how I think about the most extreme types of risks. My goal here is to share my worldview in a straightforward and compressed form rather than trying to persuade a skeptical audience, although I do share some of my reasoning.
The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 2: Transition Dynamics
How fast could an AI-automated economy actually start growing? Today's economy doesn't produce enough of the stuff that makes stuff. Restructuring takes a few years — but then the second doubling comes in half the time, and the economy is many times its current size within a decade.
10 big projects for reducing bio x-risk
The field of people working on reducing bio x-risk is distressingly small. I sketch out 10 big, urgent projects I'd be excited for new people to come work on and own.
It May Be Possible to Improvise A High Grade Bioshelter
Surviving an environment-to-human pathogen would require widespread protection from airborne exposure, indoors and out. We think this may be achievable using improvised bioshelters and PPE made from household materials, though this hypothesis still needs more testing.
Prioritizing Environment-to-Human Biological Threats
Pathogens that replicate in the environment and transmit to humans pose a uniquely direct existential risk, far more so than those that spread person-to-person or can't grow outside a host. Of the possible exposure routes, airborne transmission is by far the hardest to defend against.