AI risk and the rational voter
Voters frequently vote 'irrationally' for rational reasons: a single vote has very little impact on the outcome. For most people, beliefs and actions on AI risk are likewise only weakly correlated with the true risk.
Defenses in Depth
Preparing the world for advancing technology
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Persuasion as Market Making
Persuasion isn't just convincing someone to do one narrow thing: it's finding actions that are in their interest and also benefit you. AIs could be superhumanly good at that search.
Linkpost: AGI Will Set Off an Industrial Explosion
Why biological weapons are scary, and what we can do about it
Comparing conventional, chemical, nuclear, and biological weapons on cost per death and mass per death puts biological weapons in a class of their own.
The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 5: Given AGI, automating physical production is probably not that hard
Once we have the minds, building bodies capable enough to automate physical labor is not that hard.
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The Four Pillars: A Hypothesis for Countering Catastrophic Biological Risk
Biological risks are more severe than has been widely appreciated. Here we outline a hypothesis for ‘four pillars’ of biodefense that should work against even the most sophisticated engineered pathogens or ‘unknown unknowns’.
The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 1: Maximum growth rates with current production methods
How fast can an AI-driven economy grow? Economists expect a few percentage points; at best those closer to AI development imagine Dyson spheres within years. Who is correct?
10 big projects for reducing bio x-risk
The field of people working on reducing bio x-risk is distressingly small. I sketch out 10 big, urgent projects I'd be excited for new people to come work on and own.
Why biological weapons are scary, and what we can do about it
Comparing conventional, chemical, nuclear, and biological weapons on cost per death and mass per death puts biological weapons in a class of their own.