Defenses in Depth
Preparing the world for advancing technology
latest
Why biological weapons are scary, and what we can do about it
Comparing conventional, chemical, nuclear, and biological weapons on cost per death and mass per death puts biological weapons in a class of their own.
The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 5: Given AGI, automating physical production is probably not that hard
Once we have the minds, building bodies capable enough to automate physical labor is not that hard.
The easiest pathway to control is through executive power
Power is already centralised in the US President and Chinese General Secretary. Whoever seeks control during an AI transition, the easiest route runs through the executive.
Freeing Thucydides
Wars happen because states cannot credibly commit to the agreements they would both prefer. AIs could supply the missing enforcer, ending competition for control of the future.
featured
The Four Pillars: A Hypothesis for Countering Catastrophic Biological Risk
Biological risks are more severe than has been widely appreciated. Here we outline a hypothesis for ‘four pillars’ of biodefense that should work against even the most sophisticated engineered pathogens or ‘unknown unknowns’.
The AI Industrial Explosion — Part 1: Maximum growth rates with current production methods
How fast can an AI-driven economy grow? Economists expect a few percentage points; at best those closer to AI development imagine Dyson spheres within years. Who is correct?
10 big projects for reducing bio x-risk
The field of people working on reducing bio x-risk is distressingly small. I sketch out 10 big, urgent projects I'd be excited for new people to come work on and own.
Why biological weapons are scary, and what we can do about it
Comparing conventional, chemical, nuclear, and biological weapons on cost per death and mass per death puts biological weapons in a class of their own.